Republicans may be in toruble in New York 26th Congressional District

This has the feeling of the Scott Brown victory in Massachusetts. This would be a definite message to the Republicans and their desire to cut medicare. This would be a great victory for the Democrats going into the 2012 election cycle.

A new poll released Saturday by the Siena (College) Research Institute on the upcoming special election in New York's 26th Congressional District shows Democrat Kathy Hochul leading Republican Jane Corwin by four percentage points (42 to 38), with independent candidate Jack Davis trailing at 12 percent.

The election will choose a replacement to Rep. Chris Lee (R), who resigned earlier this year after Lee was caught sending topless photos of himself to a woman on Craigslist.

Republicans have a party registration advantage in the 26th District and the slight Democratic edge on the Siena poll is a big change from the elections of 2008 and 2010 in which Lee defeated Democratic opponents by margins of 14 and 48 percentage points respectively. The race is complicated by a third candidate, former Democrat candidate and businessman Jack Davis who is running on the Tea Party line on the special election ballot.

In late April, the Democrats started airing a television advertisement attacking Corwin for supporting the budget of Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), arguing that Ryan's budget plan would "essentially end Medicare."

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